A Critical Review of River Flow Analysis: a Case Study of the Jhelum Basin Using Various Methods

The Jhelum River is one of the main rivers in the Indus River system. It originates from the Indian-administered territory of Jammu and Kashmir and flows through India and Pakistan before joining the Chenab River. This study aims to carry out the River flow analysis of river Jhelum in Kashmir basing by employing various methods and techniques for simulating the future flood discharge scenarios. Jhelum. The findings reveal that the estimated discharge of all the return periods exceeds the current average carrying capacity (∼35,000 cusecs in Srinagar) of the river. It is thus likely that any flood event with the return period of five years or above would overflow the banks of the River Jhelum. Furthermore, the present study demonstrates that the river discharge can be satisfactorily projected by any one of the used probability distribution methods. Floods have been recurrent phenomena in the study area. A heavy precipitation, usually coming during the end months of the summer season in association with sudden cloudburst, leads to severe flooding in the study area. By now, the catchment area of the river is already saturated and the high run-off swells the rivers beyond their capacity. The present study describes the application of new models and techniques for flood studies in the river Jhelum Kashmir valley to find out the resultant expected flood levels. This purpose is to give a hand to policy makers, planners and insurers, to develop a robust strategy for the development of flood mitigation measures and plans to minimize the losses associated with the disaster in the study area.