Determinants of Impact on Global Food Security

The objective of this study is to identify and evaluate the factors influencing the dynamics of the global food security indicator in the medium term. Economic-mathematical modeling was employed to assess the most influential factors affecting global food security. The observation period spanned 10 years from 2012 to 2021. The authors presented a multivariate regression model, unveiling relationships between the primary groups of indicators, both of market and institutional origin and the dynamics of the Global Food Security Index (GFSI). The modeling results revealed a robust connection in the medium term between GFSI and indicators such as global food production, the number of new pro-liberal regulatory measures, and the dynamics of food prices. Interestingly, the authors arrived at a somewhat paradoxical conclusion based on the influencing factors and modeling results: the sensitivity of global food security to the number of new non-tariff restrictions of a discriminatory nature was found to be weaker than to the number of new pro-liberal regulatory measures. This finding may alleviate concerns expressed by the FAO regarding the potentially devastating impact of neo-protectionism in international food trade. Future research prospects in this direction could involve assessing the impact of the ongoing modernization of food systems in the USA and the EU, which are actively pursued as a priority trend for achieving the goals of sustainable development by 2030, on global food trade. Additionally, there is a need to identify the impact of the reorganization of global food supply chains resulting from military conflicts and the resurgence of neo-protectionism in grain trade by several Central European states on the GFSI.