Simulation Study for Evaluating Efficiency of McPhail Traps in Olive Groves

Olive tree production has been of paramount importance to nutrition and culture since the early fifth millennium B.C. The most serious pest of olive groves is the olive fruit fly, known as Bactrocera Oleae or Dacus Oleae, which can lead to loss of production up to 80–90%. Nowadays, measuring the olive fruit fly’s population in the olive groves is key to most pest control strategies. Accordingly, herein, a simulation of olive fruit fly’s population dynamics is presented. Initially, the simulation focuses on the correlation between the ratio of captured olive fruit flies in bait traps in relation to the entirety of population (Trap Efficiency). Subsequently, field and its factors were added in the simulation, such as the ratio of olive fruit flies captured in the traps in relation to flies within the trap’s attraction area (Capture Rate), crops’ variation, and temperature. The simulation’s results initially indicated a correlation between Trap Efficiency and Capture Rate based on previous field experiments, as well as a significant correlation between Trap Efficiency and field Temperature, using various Capture Rates. These results lead towards a contemporary tool for the estimation of olive fruit fly population as well as, by use of regression, the identification of a model that provides trap efficiency estimation for future pests’ traps.