Meridional Heat Convergence Will Increase Tropical North Atlantic Heat Content Available for Hurricane Intensification

Ocean heat content available for hurricane intensification is expected to increase in a warming world. Mechanisms for growth of the Atlantic Warm Pool to 2050 are examined in a high-resolution coupled ocean and atmosphere model with greenhouse gas forcing. The model warm pool increases in depth as well as northern and eastern extent. While net heat flux from the atmosphere remains stable through the forced model run, heat convergence from reduced heat transport by ocean currents drives growth of the warm pool. While atmospheric heat flux and oceanic heat convergence both contribute to anomalous warm water for hurricane development at present, high resolution ocean modelling suggests that, when atmospheric conditions allow for hurricane formation, increased potential for intensification from a warmer ocean will primarily be due to reduced meridional heat transport.