Modeling Return Periods of Tropical Cyclone Winds in the Vicinity of Hawaii—A Revisit

The return periods of the maximum wind speed (MWS) for tropical cyclones (TC) in the vicinity of Hawaii from 1966 to 2022 were examined. After testing a suite of potential predictors, a significant correlation between the ocean heat content (OHC) and TC frequency was observed. Using the OHC, MWS and striking date, together with a Poisson regression, generalized extreme value distribution, and kernel density estimation to fit TC frequency and MWS, we developed a modern statistical model to determine the return periods of MWS. Results showed that the uncertainty of the return periods became larger as the MWS increased. Compared to the previous results based on datasets from 1970 to 1995, the return periods of MWS based on the updated data and modern statistical techniques shortened considerably, suggesting an increased risk of damaging wind associated with TCs in the vicinity of Hawaii in recent decades.