NATO and Black Sea Security

During the Cold War, NATO was not a significant player in the Black Sea region. After 1991, NATO broadened its mission, reducing its emphasis on defence and deterrence and focusing on non-traditional security challenges. Eastward enlargement brought in two new Black Sea members. Russia’s attacks on Georgia (2008) and Ukraine (2014) began a return of NATO strategy to its traditional hard-security mission. Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine accelerated this trend, with new command structures and force complements committed to the Black Sea littoral, along with substantial member-state financial and military support to Ukraine. NATO has become a major institutional actor in the Black Sea region, providing forces in being as well as coordination of member state postures. Whether this can be sustained depends on a number of factors, notably the domestic politics of member states, the strength of the near consensus on the need to deter and defend against Russian aggression, the evolution of Russian policy, and the reconstruction of European NATO forces and the defence industrial base.