Comprehensive Security in the Wider Black Sea Region: The Connection with the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea

With the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War in 2020 and Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, the regional security order in the wider Black Sea region is shifting. While Russia is losing its role as the regional hegemon, its interests toward the region are changing with regard to increasing trade and transit. Additionally, we observe growing competition among Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Russia and the EU about the future of regional security order. Since there is no longer a regional hegemon, transactionalism and the “power of the strong” create a more unstable environment. That will undermine the very idea of “security through connectivity”, augmenting disorder and disruption in the wider Black Sea region.