The Role of California Fires in Predicting Valley Fever

Valley Fever is a non-communicable disease caused by the fungus Coccidioides. Coccidioidomycosis is caused by two Coccidioides fungi found in soil, C. immitis and C. posadasii . This soilborne disease spreads when dry ground is broken up, such as during construction projects or natural disasters. When soil is disturbed, the fungi become airborne, and infect the host when their spores are inhaled. Due to their hot and arid climate, the Central Valley counties of Fresno, Kern, Kings, Madera, and Tulare have the greatest reports. Previous studies have focused on the effects of temperature and precipitation, but have not included the potential impact of wildfires on the spread of this disease. Moreover, this is the first neural network approach proposed for predicting the case rates of this disease. In our research, we explore two different datasets that contain information about California fires and Valley Fever cases in California. We aim to quantify the impact of fires on the number of cases using a variety of deep learning approaches but only discuss the long short-term memory approach. Being able to predict the number of cases by quantifying the effect of environmental factors to help reduce the number of cases is one intended outcome. Knowing where the cases are being reported allows us to raise consciousness of the illness, so that people can better protect themselves.