A Model to Predict Span Time and Effort for Product Development Processes

Companies are continuously trying to deliver products on time. However, traditional tools such as product lifecycle management, critical path method, and program evaluation and review technique cannot predict product development span time with reasonable accuracy. Product development involves large, multidisciplinary teams designing complex, interdependent systems; so, predicting span time is challenging. We have modelled product development micro-activities to predict project span time and effort. The model uses a knowledge perspective where the difference between product knowledge requirements and designer knowledge capability drives product development speed. We simulate both process tasks and team behaviour, which are influenced by product complexity, development process complexity, and the difficulty of both technical and interface design. Our method predicts span time and effort at the start of a project or at any point during the development process as conditions change. It can also identify specific bottlenecks and poor levels of designer performance.