There has been a strong growth in European and global demand for air transport services in the past decades, and there is likely to be a continuation of such growth in future, as indicated by major forecasts . European and global traffic development is closely interrelated because of the global nature of air travel, so that one has to look at both European and global traffic development. The air transport sector needs to reduce its environmental impact, especially if expected future air traffic volumes are considered, which is forecast to increase in Europe by more than 70% and almost double globally by 2050 compared to 2022. One way of achieving this is to employ so called sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which also includes certain powerfuel option, to an increasing extent in future. This will be analysed in the following chapters. Other approaches to reduce the aviation related climate impact—which are not the focus of this study—include for example more passengers per flight, i.e. increasing load factors and / or employing larger aircraft, and the use of more efficient aircraft in terms of fuel consumption and emissions. A brief overview of the regulatory framework of air transport relating to the mitigation of climate change and the use of SAF is given, as well as the “Fit for 55” strategy of the European Union (EU) as a measure for mitigating such climate change. Subsequently, two scenarios up to the year 2050 are presented to show a possible impact of SAF on air transport volumes. Finally, a summary and the major conclusions of this analysis will be presented.

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Development of European Airborne Mobility and Prospects of Sustainable Aviation Fuels

  • Marc C. Gelhausen,
  • Fabian Baier,
  • Peter Berster,
  • Nico Flüthmann

摘要

There has been a strong growth in European and global demand for air transport services in the past decades, and there is likely to be a continuation of such growth in future, as indicated by major forecasts . European and global traffic development is closely interrelated because of the global nature of air travel, so that one has to look at both European and global traffic development. The air transport sector needs to reduce its environmental impact, especially if expected future air traffic volumes are considered, which is forecast to increase in Europe by more than 70% and almost double globally by 2050 compared to 2022. One way of achieving this is to employ so called sustainable aviation fuels (SAF), which also includes certain powerfuel option, to an increasing extent in future. This will be analysed in the following chapters. Other approaches to reduce the aviation related climate impact—which are not the focus of this study—include for example more passengers per flight, i.e. increasing load factors and / or employing larger aircraft, and the use of more efficient aircraft in terms of fuel consumption and emissions. A brief overview of the regulatory framework of air transport relating to the mitigation of climate change and the use of SAF is given, as well as the “Fit for 55” strategy of the European Union (EU) as a measure for mitigating such climate change. Subsequently, two scenarios up to the year 2050 are presented to show a possible impact of SAF on air transport volumes. Finally, a summary and the major conclusions of this analysis will be presented.