Future Urbanization Pathways: Compact, Polycentric, or Diffuse

This chapter presents the three future urbanization scenarios created as part of the ESPON SUPER project: compact, polycentric, and diffuse. The research design is explained using a four-step procedure and discusses the distinction between exogenous (environmental) and normative (policy) scenarios. It also explores the qualitative and quantitative approaches for the analysis and communication of scenarios and, specifically, the use of the LUISETTA land-allocation model to simulate urbanization in the three scenarios. After presenting the scenario storylines, the impacts on the physical landscape are discussed as well as changes in urbanization and population density. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the potential of these scenarios to serve as a basis for public debate on preferred policy directions and as a tool for drafting a strategy to achieve sustainable urbanization.