Exploring Climatic Dynamics in Madhya Pradesh, India Utilizing Long-Term Gridded Data (1951–2021): An Integrated Statistical and GIS Modules

Climate change is a global issue resulting from numerous human activities that alter hydro-climatic factors such as temperature, precipitation, river flow, and severe weather occurrences. India has seen a notable transformation in its natural resources and agricultural industries. This chapter comprehensively examines the climatic fluctuations in Madhya Pradesh, India, from 1951 to 2021 using IMD daily gridded rainfall and temperature data. Research utilizes non-parametric statistical techniques to evaluate trends, detect abrupt change points, and investigate regional patterns in seasonal precipitation and temperature. The Mann–Kendall test (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator (SS) are applied to identify the trends and magnitude and understand temporal changes in meteorological variables. Furthermore, Pettitt’s test detects sudden changes in long-term data, uncovering sudden patterns alterations. The findings reveal significant fluctuations in seasonal precipitation, with a discernible upward pattern in the premonsoon season (Z = 0.29) with a rate of 0.02 mm annually and downward patterns in the monsoon (Z = -0.93), winter seasons (Z = -0.73) and post-monsoon (Z = -0.76). These results have implications for the administration of water resources and the planning of agriculture. However, the investigation uncovers a consistent increase in Tmean, Tmax, and Tmin across all seasons, with notable differences in different areas. The change point analysis identifies the year when significant changes in rainfall and temperature patterns occurred. Inverse distance weighting methods allow for examining spatial changes, revealing the geographical distribution of certain climatic variables. This chapter improves the comprehension of climatic dynamics in Madhya Pradesh, providing a constructive understanding for policy makers, researchers and practitioners engaged in climate resilience and sustainable development planning.