Economic Benefits and Passenger Developments under the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM)

This chapter outlines the economic benefits and passenger developments under the Single African Air Transport Market (SAATM), illustrating the transformative potential of liberalising air transport across Africa. The chapter is divided into two main parts, each addressing critical components of SAATM’s implementation and its impacts. Part 1 delves into the foundational aspects of SAATM, exploring its introduction within the context of the African Union Agenda 2063, aiming to create a unified African sky to enhance connectivity and economic growth. The narrative progresses through a detailed analysis of the current status of SAATM implementation, highlighting the progress made and the challenges faced. It provides a comprehensive examination of the role of Regional Economic Communities (RECs) in facilitating this integration, the status of Bilateral Air Service Agreements (BASAs) and their compliance with SAATM’s objectives, and the broader impact on air navigation systems and infrastructure development. This section also discusses the alignment of SAATM with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and ICAO’s strategic objectives, underscoring the global relevance and the envisioned benefits of an integrated African air transport market. Part 2 transitions into a quantitative methodology to assess the impact of air transport liberalisation in Africa, introducing an empirical two-tier forecasting model to analyse data and predict outcomes. This analytical section meticulously examines the elements contributing to the Air Liberalisation Index (ALI), including statistical indexes and the scoring of intra-African BASA provisions. The impact of recent global challenges, such as COVID-19, is also considered within the context of autoregressive models and time-series forecasting, offering a nuanced understanding of SAATM’s potential economic impacts on tourism, trade, and overall economic growth within the liberalisation framework. In conclusion, this chapter provides a thorough exploration of SAATM’s economic benefits and passenger developments, presenting a compelling case for the continued push towards air transport liberalisation in Africa. It not only highlights the progress made but also the significant challenges that must be overcome to fully realise the vision of a single African air transport market that fosters economic growth, enhances connectivity, and contributes to the sustainable development of the continent.