Construction of a Prospective Scenario of Land Use and Cover Change for the Usumacinta River Basin, Indispensable Element for Regional Planning

The border shared by Mexico and Guatemala, formed by the states of Chiapas, Campeche, Tabasco and the Guatemalan country, is located in one of the largest existing border basins in Mexico. This basin has a highly complex hydrological network, and the topographic variability, as well as the large amounts of precipitation, make it one of the most important areas in the world for its biological and cultural diversity. This diversity is threatened by land use and cover change, where there are series of drivers of change and environmental and social determinants that make their analysis a priority. This study analyzes historical land use changes that have occurred since 1990 and 2010, which are used as the basis for the construction of a prospective trend model for the year 2030. The results obtained from the prospective trend model show that dramatic changes are expected for the Usumacinta watershed in terms of increased agricultural land use, loss of forests and loss of water bodies. This information shows the need to analyze the socio- environmental implications that this could bring with it, as well as the importance of building instruments to focus the means of territorial intervention.