Effect of Settlement and Agriculture Expansion on Carbon Balance in Kanwar Lake, a Ramsar Site

Kanwar Lake faces ecological degradationEcological degradation due to expanding agriculture and built-up areas, threatening biodiversity and altering the wetlandWetland degradation landscape. Therefore, this study aims to understand the complex interaction between human activities and the ecosystem’sEcosystem carbon dynamics. Using satellite imagery, the changes in LULCLand use and land cover were mapped using a Random Forest algorithm that reveals fluctuations in six classes. The modeling of carbon storageCarbon storage using the InVEST toolIntegrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) and the economic valuation of carbon storage used a pixel-based approach that assesses the net change in carbon sequestered or lost and converts it into an economic value. Results showed a significant increase in built-up areas from 2012 to 2022, fluctuating cropland, and potential agricultural expansion indicated by adjacent fallow land. Conflicts between agriculture and wetland conservation were noted, impacting regional food security and carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration. While some carbon storageCarbon storage recovery was observed, the trend indicated a landscape dominated by low-carbon storage zones, with a maximum observed storage of 12.24 t/ha. Fluctuations were attributed to agricultural intensification, urban development, conservation efforts, and climate change. The economic valuation of carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration revealed spatial variations in value over time. From 1992 to 2022, there was a decrease in both the total economic values of carbon sequestered and emitted, indicating a diminishing capacity of the ecosystemEcosystem to provide carbon sequestration services. Carbon emission modeling across the lake indicated medium-level emissions in wetland and marshy areas in 1992, with a general reduction in emission intensity by 2002. By 2012, increased emissions were noted in croplands, continuing into 2022, despite a stabilization in the carbon storageCarbon storage capability of marshy areas. The findings highlight the importance of sustained land management and conservation strategies to enhance carbon sequestrationCarbon sequestration and mitigate the economic and ecological impacts of carbon emissions.