Who is the GOAT (Greatest of All Time) Formula One Racer—Hamilton, Schumacher, Verstappen, Vettel, or Some Other Driver, Perhaps Fangio? Statistical Analyses Provide Answers and Information for Game Designers

The debate about who is the GOAT (the “Greatest Of All Time”) is not restricted to Formula One competition. There are several possible criteria, other than the number of World Championships won. We approach this issue of attempting to identify the GOAT (assuming that there is only one), by looking at the race performance of 12 drivers who participated in Grand Prix races since 1950. (a) Unquestionably, the more race participation, the greater the chance of accumulating wins and therefore improving a driver’s ranking towards being the GOAT. (b) A similar line of argument occurs for the ranking via podiums. (c) The system of awarding points for ranks after the race has changed five times since 1950. Comparing points accrued by different drivers therefore necessitates reassigning points to achieve comparability. We also consider how rankings change if other point systems are used. (d) Bayesian statistical analysis allows not only the evaluation of who is eligible for GOAT without using a point system (via Beta and Dirichlet distributions) but can also estimate the probability that two contenders’ performances differ only by chance. Formula One also takes place in video games, particularly in tournaments. Here we provide evidence that avoiding point systems to identify winners of the tournament is advisable. We provide suspense by not revealing who is the GOAT in this Abstract. We provide the names of one or several GOATs (there might be several) in this publication.