Revamping the RAMPAGE Adaptive Intelligence Analysis Framework in the Age of Generative AI

Generative AI (GenAI) has the capability to revolutionize even modern processes and framework implementations. In 2021 we presented the Reasoning about Multiple Paths and Alternatives to Generate Effective Forecasts (RAMPAGE) process framework to support hypothesis generation for counterfactual forecasting and intelligence analysis [1]. This framework provided a structure to organize and order analysis methods to maximize the number and quality of hypotheses generated to improve forecasts. Different instantiations of GenAI could be used to improve the results of each stage in this framework. Adding GenAI to implementations of the RAMPAGE framework would greatly expand the number and quality of hypotheses than analysts can generate, which would lead to better forecasts. In this paper, we present examples of how GenAI tools could be used to enhance the RAMPAGE framework.