Forecasting Innovative Changes in Managing Socio-Economic Systems

The planning of innovative changes in socio-economic systems should focus on the effective utilization of the existing potential for innovative development. This research proposes a method for strategic planning of innovative changes, which enables the determination of development goals, approaches to problem-solving, and a system of indicators to optimize plans for innovative change. The stages of organizing innovative activities, aligned with the mechanism of project development and implementation, are identified. The technique is improved through a system of analytical indicators that assess the state of innovative activity and the scientific and technical level of innovations. The establishment of admissible sets of elementary processes and their combinations leading to innovative changes is also discussed. The planning algorithm is adapted to the type of innovative behavior and the state of the innovation potential within the socio-economic system. The potential for innovation in socio-economic systems is exemplified by the case of Ukraine, with the determination of the strategy for its innovative development in relation to the potentially optimal state.