Space Weather Environment and the SpaceX Starlink Satellite Loss in February 2022
摘要
SpaceX Starlink launched and subsequently lost 38 of 49 satellites because of enhanced neutral density associated with a geomagnetic storm on 3 February 2022. Fang et al. (Space Weather, 20:e2022SW003193, [1]) examine the space weather conditions related to the satellite loss, based on observations, forecasts, and numerical simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC). Working closely with the Starlink team, the thermospheric densities along the satellite orbits were estimated and the neutral density increase leading to the satellite loss was investigated. Simulation results suggest that the NRLMSIS-00 neutral density estimates used by the Starlink team in pre-launch Monte Carlo analysis tended to underestimate the neutral density compared to predictions from the operational WAM-IPE physics-based model during the geomagnetic storm. The numerical simulation indicated this minor to moderate geomagnetic storm sufficed to create 50% to 125% density enhancement at altitudes ranging between 200 and 400 km. With the increasing solar activity of Solar Cycle 25, satellites in low-Earth orbit (LEO) are expected to experience an increasing number of thermospheric expansion events. In this paper, space weather information from the Feb 2022 event will be discussed in detail. Continuous engagement between NOAA SWPC and the SpaceX Starlink team on several research efforts was shared and discussed.