Integration of Deterministic, Stochastic, and Non-stochastic Models to Obtain an Optimal Collaborative Decision in the Flight Emergency

From 1953 to 2009, the researchers recorded 129 incidents of aircraft hitting volcanic ash clouds. In nine cases, the damage was accompanied by the failure of the engine(s) during the flight. In such flight emergencies (FE), operational interaction between the pilot, air traffic controller, and search and rescue specialist is highly significant. Nevertheless, the interprofessional interaction of aviation specialists is currently not sufficiently developed for joint development and adoption of optimal decisions. Therefore, the development of effective Collaborative Decision Making (CDM) models by aviation specialists in FE is an actual problem. Multi-stage CDM modeling by the aviation specialists in FE with the gradual involvement of additional operators in decision-making is proposed. The decision tree, network graphics, and decision-making matrices for the aviation specialists are presented. Integration of CDM models allows moving from a complex to a simple CDM process by establishing unambiguity and synchronization of joint actions of operators at key points of multialternative interaction and minimizing potential risk/loss. A training example of CDM in FE “Loss of thrust on both engines due to falling into a cloud of volcanic ash with subsequent ditching” is presented. The optimal CDM based on the objective and subjective factors to follow of aviation specialist’s decisions by Wald, Laplace, and Hurwitz criteria is determined. After integrating stochastic and non-stochastic models, simplified deterministic CDM models in FE should be used in artificial or hybrid intelligence systems to obtain optimal collaborative solutions.