Introduction

The establishment of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in March 2018 has generated a lot of interest regarding the future of Africa’s economic development among researchers, observers, policymakers, and students of Africa’s economic development. This interest has gone in three different directions. The optimists see this as a way forward for Africa’s economic development, the pessimists see it as another form of charade similar to past events, while the realists see it as a venture that will work if taken more seriously. This chapter places this book in the realist camp. Using Africa’s data compiled by the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) the chapter argues that the promise of the AfCFTA cannot be fulfilled unless African countries restructure their economies through industrialization. The chapter bases this conclusion on five indisputable facts about Africa’s trade relations and experience with regional trade agreements. First, Africa is not a major player when it comes to world trade. Second, the AfCFTA is not the first regional trade agreement in Africa. There have been many before that have not worked for different reasons. Third, the pre-AfCFTA integration has not worked because of the direction of African trade. Fourth, the direction of Africa’s trade is still externally dominated because of the composition of Africa’s trade. Fifth, the composition of Africa’s trade is problematic because of the industry mix of African economies.