Application of Artificial Neural Network in Forecasting Economic Growth in Ho Chi Minh City

Economic growth affects the implementation of social policies by changing the structure of the economic sector, forming many new industries, and creating many jobs (Trung et al. in J Commer Sci 154:3–13 (2021) [1]). Forecasting economic growth on a global, national, or local level is, therefore, always of particular interest to national governments. This study aims to forecast Ho Chi Minh City’s economic growth in 2023. With data from Q1/2017 to Q2/2023, we developed and estimated the economic growth forecasting model using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model with 1 hidden layer and 3 neurons. In the current context, economic relationships have changed a lot due to the impact of extreme events such as the COVID-19 epidemic and political conflicts. At that time, traditional models based on relationships between economic variables were no longer effective. An ANN Model is a great alternative to traditional models, as there is no need for a functional form for economic variables. Our forecast results show that GRDP growth in Q3/2023 and Q4/2023 is 4.05% and 3.96%, respectively. In addition, we also provide confidence intervals for each of these forecasts.