Scenario Analysis on Deployment of Clean Liquid Fuels in Japan Toward Decarbonizing Energy Systems

The global movement toward carbon neutrality is gaining momentum as concerns about climate change have escalated. Japan has set ambitious targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 46% compared to 2013 levels by FY2030 and achieve net-zero emissions by 2050, necessitating a significant energy transition. In Japan’s long-term energy plan, clean fuels are considered a silver bullet for decarbonizing sectors that are difficult to electrify. This study provides a new carbon-neutral scenario for Japan that incorporates clean liquid fuels, particularly e-fuels and biofuels. Japan’s energy transition toward net-zero CO2 emissions by 2050 was simulated using an energy model that can analyze the whole energy system in Japan. The model identifies a combination of energy carriers and technologies that minimize the total energy system cost by solving a linear programming problem. The results of the scenario analysis suggested that the primary energy supply will decrease from 20.2 EJ in 2010 to 18.1 EJ in 2050. The results also indicate that clean liquid fuels, which is used for automotive fuels, will account for 10% of the primary energy supply in 2050. These results provide insights into the long-term transformation of the energy supply and technology deployment.