A Comparative Analysis of the Global Supply Chain Bottlenecks During the Covid-19 Pandemic

Global supply chains are essential for the smooth functioning of the global economy, as they enable the movement of goods, services, and capital across borders. However, disruptions to these supply chains, such as bottlenecks, can lead to higher prices for producers and consumers. The impact can be particularly severe in the case of large-scale disruptions, such as those caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, we illustrate the impact of the global supply chain bottlenecks on the main macroeconomic variables, as inflation, producer prices, industrial production and balance of goods and services for the CEE countries such as Romania, Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland. We analyse the shock in the context of a Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR). The study compares the shocks administered pre/post the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Finally, based on the value of GSCPI (Global Supply Chain Pressure Index) we make a near-term conditional forecast on the macroeconomic variables of Romania.