Worrisome Evolutions Versus Involutions at the Level of Geopolitical and Geoeconomic Balances. Case Study—Russian Economy

The international political and economic scene is becoming more and more unstable due to different philosophies for the future, with some key nations vehemently opposing the current globalization agenda. In the specialized literature, in addition to the studies that deal with the dynamics, nature and complexity of the globalization phenomenon, there is more and more research considering deglobalization as its subject, and the economic factors with an impact on the business environment are outclassed by the political and geostrategic ones. The climate of friendship and collaboration, present in the majority of the periods since World War II, appears to have come to an end, giving way to confrontation, strategic rivalry, disruption on basic economic flows. As a result, this practice seems to have stopped due to trade sanctions, the relaunch of protectionist policies, and embargoes applied to some signatory states of all multilateral agreements. The main aim of this research paper is to analytically examine the effectiveness of the sanctions on the Russian economy using the EGARCH approach. Hence, this research paper investigates the volatility of the Russian ruble against the US dollar and Euro. Although the literature on the volatility of RUB/USD and RUB/EUR exists, it neglects to recognize the risk associated with a stronger Russia–China alliance considering both economic and military aspects, particularly in these turbulent times.