Caught Between Today and Tomorrow: Defence AI in Estonia

Estonia recognises AI as an increasingly important suite of technologies that will transform the defence sector and that the country must remain part of this technology’s wave, as its defence forces will have to remain interoperable with the allies embracing AI-enabled capabilities. Concurrently, it faces a major challenge of addressing significant capability gaps within the compressed timeframes to address the existential threat posed by Russia. Combined with resource constraints and scepticism within the military about emerging technologies, rapid capability build-up is pushing investments into defence AI development down the list of priorities. However, war in Ukraine is supplying insights into what effects the use of AI can have in a battlespace and pique interest in how small states could employ this technology to offset imbalances vis-à-vis a numerically superior enemy force. Some in-house development projects aimed at digitalising “kill webs”, enabling better information sharing and enhancing common battlespace awareness are also emerging as important vehicles for introducing AI. The Estonian security and defence industry, dominated by agile start-ups and small enterprises, is emerging as a significant driver of defence AI development and important source of concepts of AI applications in defence. Procurement of state-of-the-art weapon systems and equipment is also bringing the Estonian military into close contact with advanced technologies that include elements of AI, further necessitating increasing knowledge and competence in AI technology. Estonia will have to strengthen its military training and education system and find ways to leverage conscription and reserve training more effectively to enhance AI competence.