Energy Transition Scenarios

In this September 2021 interview, Uwe Schulte speaks with David Hone, Chief Climate Change Advisor at Shell, about the company’s energy transition scenarios. Hone, who has a background in chemical engineering and extensive experience at Shell, discusses the importance of scenario planning in addressing climate change. He explains that scenario planning involves creating multiple plausible futures to prepare for potential disruptions rather than predicting exact outcomes. Hone describes Shell’s three scenarios: “Sky 1.5”, which envisions global cooperation leading to significant emission reductions and meeting the Paris Agreement goals; “Islands”, where inward-looking nationalism slows progress, resulting in higher global temperatures; and “Waves”, where initial economic recovery from the pandemic is followed by a rapid shift away from fossil fuels. Hone emphasizes the need for sectoral cooperation and the adoption of new technologies to achieve a sustainable energy future. The discussion highlights the urgency of addressing climate change and the opportunities for innovation in the energy sector.