“Russian–Ukrainian Crisis: To What Extent Can It Affect the Composition and the Terms of Greece’s Foreign Trade in the Region.”

Based on international articles, it is found that there is a strong concern about the trend of de-globalization that seems to prevail at a global level. Many researchers internationally are asking: “whether we are living the end of globalization or are we moving into a new reality?,” especially after Russia’s invasion in Ukraine and the imposition of administrative and economic sanctions by the European Union against Moscow. The article explores the impact of the recent geopolitical crisis between Russia and Ukraine on Greece’s foreign trade. Specifically, the progress of Greece’s bilateral relations with the two countries is being considered while additionally are being analysed the composition of Greece’s foreign trade, the sectoral composition of bilateral trade and the terms of foreign trade of Greece with those countries for the period 2017–2022. Methodologically, based on previous research efforts, the intensity of intra-industry trade is investigated by using firstly the Grubel-Lloyd index (GL index) and secondly the Revealed Comparative Advantage (RCA) index. The results of the research approach indicate for Greece’s foreign trade that over time imports overcome exports, which implies a strong trade deficit over time. It also appears that the degree of sensitivity of imports is greater than the degree of sensitivity of exports. Regarding the sectoral structure (SITC1) of foreign trade, what is found is the same structure both in imports and exports, while according to the index (GL Index), the foreign trade of Greece at a global level is basically intra-sectoral. Moreover, the results indicate that Greece has a higher specific gravity of exports (than that of imports) in sectors of low value added and labour intensity, while on the contrary, it has a lower specific weight (of exports compared to imports) in high value-added and capital-intensive sectors. Finally, as far as bilateral relations with Russia are concerned, although there is a high dependence on Russian exports, there are no strong consequences of the tensions in Russian–Ukrainian area on the trade front, making Greece one of the least at-risk countries.