Evaluating the Sensitivity of Saffron Yield to Climate Change in Western Himalaya, India. A Study from Kashmir Valley

Agriculture stands as a basis of economy in some major regions of the Himalaya, contributing substantially to the livelihoods of millions. However, the persistent alterations in meteorological variables, attributed to climate warming, have profoundly impacted agricultural productivity, disrupting the economic stability of the region. Kashmir Himalayas emerge prominently as a key global producer of saffron (Crocus sativus L.) cultivated within a specific and delicate micro-climate, is found vulnerable to the ramifications of evolving climatic conditions. In this study, we employed meteorological data (temperature and precipitation), coupled with saffron production statistics, to unravel the intricate relationship between changing climate patterns and saffron cultivation. The findings unveiled a noteworthy escalation in temperature, progressing from an increment of 0.1 °C per decade during the period spanning 1901 to 2014, to a more pronounced rise of about 0.3 °C per decade from 1951 to 2021. This temporal shift in climatic variables stands as a compelling factor exerting a profound influence on saffron production. Further analysis of the results underscored a discernible decline in saffron production over the past two decades. Specifically, the saffron yield dwindled from 15.95 metric tons in 1997 to 9.6 metric tons in 2015. The reduction was mirrored in the cultivated area, which contracted from 5707 ha in 1997 to 3674 ha in 2015. These findings illuminate the role of changing climate in the substantial decrease witnessed in saffron production. The study also endeavours to dissect the underlying issues impeding crop cultivation and consequently, the economic vitality of the region.