Assessing the Rural Livelihood Vulnerability and Risk to River Flood in Lower Gangetic West Bengal Applying IPCC-AR5 Methodology

The flood management Master plan for Ghatal in West Bengal, India, has gained national attention due to ongoing floods and aftermath, exacerbated by heavy rains in Chhattisgarh and the May 2021 Yaas storm. Floodwaters in areas like Amta-I and II, Udanarayanpur, Arambag, Khanakul-I and II, Pursurah, Daspur-I and II, and Ghatal caused severe damage to lives and livelihoods, highlighting climate change’s impact on lower elevations. The study retrospectively examines the vulnerability and risk outlined in IPCC-AR5, evaluating micro-level livelihood vulnerability and risk across the 124 Panchayats in the three districts. This study examines the risk of catastrophic floods in the Shilabati, Dwarkeshwar, and Mundeshwari rivers due to DVC dams, using hybrid techniques to quantify livelihood sensitivity and risk. The overall hazards derived from IPCC-AR5 components, with an index of 0.418, indicate that households in the study region relying on nature are highly vulnerable to climate change. Farming households in riverine areas exhibit greater vulnerability, with an index of 0.689, compared to those in non-riverine areas, with an index of 0.372, based on the IPCC-AR5 risk assessment. The study extends its examination to IPCC-AR5-based risk assessments at the household level across various settings. Utilizing a violin plot to illustrate quartiles and risk levels among residents in different administrative districts, the study underscores the benefit of the IPCC-AR5 approach. It identifies adaptation methods and climate-resilient paths within the current boundaries of the system to mitigate the effects of climate change. Despite the increasing prevalence of climate change-related uncertainties, the study reveals that local residents have adapted to living in a stressful environment.