Modeling of a Microgrid and Its Time-Series Analysis Using the Prophet Model

This paper examines the techno-economic-environmental viability analysis of a grid-connected hybrid system as a microgrid (MG) employing locally available renewable resources including solar, wind, and hydro energy. Based on the resources available in both the presence and absence of a storage unit, a total of 4 different configurations are analyzed. With an energy generation cost, the grid-connected photovoltaic hybrid system is discovered to be the most cost-effective. The ideal system is predicted to save money. The proposed MG system helps to reduce 37.6 Mt CO2/year concerning the diesel-only system. The influence of changing various input factors, such as solar radiation, fuel price, real interest rate, and capacity deficit on system outputs is then determined using sensitivity and time series analysis. This is done to identify the essential sensitive parameters. It is discovered that the ideal system is more susceptible to changes in solar radiation, real interest rate, grid lifetime, and yearly energy shortfall in particular. The study’s findings would be useful for policymakers, analysts, and planners of renewable energy systems in determining the most recent design limitations and developing suitable 100% renewable energy systems for the energy provider. HOMER grid software (HGS), Weka software, and MS-excel are used for the analysis of the proposed system. The result shows that HGS gives the most optimized MG system after optimizing more than 7000 configurations. This software has a huge advantage over other software used for modeling the MG. However, the Prophet model is used for the prediction of the MG. It gives a better prediction result than the SARIMA model. Weka software helps to analyze the data obtained from the HGS for the proposed MG to find the overall behavior of the different parameters of the proposed MG over 25 years of its lifespan.