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Monte Carlo Simulation for Project Risk Prioritisation

  • Fernando Acebes,
  • David Curto,
  • José Manuel González-Varona,
  • Javier Pajares

摘要

Qualitative project risk assessment is standard practice in project management and involves prioritising risks using a probability and impact matrix. Due to the shortcomings of using this tool for risk prioritisation (poor resolution, errors, suboptimal resource allocation or ambiguous inputs and outputs, among others), we propose a quantitative prioritisation of project risks in this article, analysing the impact of each risk on the project’s duration and cost objectives.