Analyzing the Emergence and Dynamics of Pluralistic Ignorance with Agent-Based Models

Opinions are shaped at an individual level by social interactions and personal experience. The ways in which it shapes and changes is a topic of interest for opinion studies. Researchers have also explored the intricate dynamics of social phenomena such as polarization, the spiral of silence, and pluralistic ignorance. Pluralistic ignorance is a condition when the real opinion in a society is different from the spoken ideas. It is not clear how a difference in opinions between what someone says publicly (expressed opinion) and what they truly think (private opinion) arises, spreads, and continues to exist over time. To better understand this phenomenon, an Expressed-Private Opinion model was used to analyze how this discrepancy changes over time, using agent-based modeling. The study categorized agent types into four groups based on parameters, followed by an analysis of a society in which these types of agents are connected. It has demonstrated that individuals holding majority opinions are susceptible to being influenced by the minority. This susceptibility arises from social pressure, which can lead people to conceal their true opinion and conform to the assumed majority opinion. In certain societies, individuals are less likely to conform to the minority opinion when they receive early support or encounter voices that uphold their own opinions.