Climatic Variability and Trends Over the Water-Scarce Region of Western Maharashtra (India)

This study attempted to understand recent (1980–2015) and future (2015–2050) variability and trends in rainfall and temperature over the water-scarce region of Maharashtra. Various parameters in descriptive statistics evaluated the variability in climatic data. Using linear regression (parametric) and Mann–Kendall (non-parametric) statistical techniques, station-wise linear trends in rainfall and temperature data were detected. The meteorological droughts were evaluated using IMD’s criterion (deviation from normal). The study region experienced severe rainfall deficiencies in 1985–1986, 2002–2003, and 2011–2012 with − 40% to − 60% departures from normal. The study also clears that very few deficient rainfall events were associated with the negative phase of Southern Oscillation. The Karha Basin observed highly erratic rainfall behavior among the study basins. The Agrani Basin is observed to be the most vulnerable to drought conditions, as it experienced the highest frequency of meteorological droughts. About 60% of stations in the study area reveal decline in monsoon rainfall. However, the stations in the vicinity of Western Ghats exhibit an increase in monsoon total and heavy rainfall events. The climate projection model denotes no considerable increase in rainfall during 2015–2050, which suggesting no change in regional water availability. On the other hand, the annual mean temperature (AMT) in the study area exhibits a significant rise of 0.9 °C up to 2050. The estimated warming over the semi-arid region of Maharashtra may aggravate the agricultural water demand and exacerbates the water scarcity challenge.