Demographic Transformations in the Historical Process

In this chapter, Grinin et al. provide an analysis of the demographic development of humankind in its close relationship with technological development, including the trends of the twenty-first century. The analysis of the demographic component, the demographic dimension of the historical process, has not been sufficiently researched. Meanwhile, it is an extremely important aspect that can not only explain essential parts of the development, but also provide a basis for explaining current processes and forecasting our futures. Grinin et al. consider the dynamics of the correlation between the major technological breakthroughs in history—the Agrarian, Industrial and Cybernetic Revolutions (discussed in Chap. 2 )—and the major demographic transformations in the historical process. A special place is given to the analysis of the demographic transition in the context of the demographic transformations of the last seven to eight decades. This allows them to reveal the essential features of modern demographic processes, the role of the societal aging process, which will increasingly influence the life of society. Grinin et al. also make predictions about future demographic transformations associated with the development of the societal aging process and the formation of a new type of population reproduction up to the end of this century.