Global Technological Transformations Since the Stone Age: Theory and History

In this chapter Grinin et al. describe the main technological changes within the historical process, show the general process of changes and to explain how and why technological epochs succeeded each other. The chapter introduces two interconnected theories: the ones of Production (or technological) Revolutions and of Production Principles. The authors single out four production principles: 1. Hunter-Gatherer; 2. Craft-Agrarian; 3. Trade-Industrial; 4. Scientific-Cybernetic. The change in production principles is connected with production revolutions. Among all major technological breakthroughs in history the most important are the three production revolutions: 1) the Agrarian Revolution (10–3 millennia BCE); 2) the Industrial Revolution (the 16th–19th centuries) and 3) the Cybernetic Revolution (1950 – up to 2070). The first phase of the Cybernetic Revolution took place between the 1950s and mid-1990s with a vigorous development of information technologies. The final phase of the Cybernetic Revolution may begin approximately between the 2030s and 2040s and will finish in 2060–2070. It will usher the beginning of the epoch of ‘self-regulating systems’, which can be working without human control. The authors also offer some forecasts about the periods after the end of the Cybernetic Revolution up to the end of the 21st century.