Methodology for Modeling the Impact of Multimodal Transportation on the Development of the Arctic Region of Russia

This article outlines the methodology of modeling the impact of multimodal transportation on the development of the Arctic region of Russia on the example of the Murmansk region. The Murmansk Oblast is the northernmost region of the European part of Russia, mainly located above the Arctic Circle. The region borders the Republic of Karelia in the south and Finland and Norway in the west. For modeling, a model of single regression equations was formed. The model includes five mutually dependent equations. Endogenous variables of the model are indicators of the processes of development of the Arctic region of Russia. The predetermined variables of the model reflect the impact of multimodal transportation in the Murmansk region. There are eight such variables in total: the volume of industrial output, the share of the region's industrial output in the all-Russian volume of industrial output, the length of public railroads and others. To analyze and find the parameters of the model, we used the methodology developed in the System Dynamics Laboratory of the University. The approach to model development based on the use of endogenous and exogenous variables can provide an opportunity to analyze and consider the consequences of changes in feedbacks in the systems of which they are a part. According to the obtained results from an analysis of the constructed model, the approach to modeling of multimodal logistic systems for remote fields and objects of the Arctic territories of Russia, and taking into account their service, an expected development of transport infrastructure on the basis of graph theory tools is proposed. To solve such a problem, it is possible to apply the method of searching for the minimum graph frame.