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A Mathematical Study of Reproduction Number and Its Control Strategies in Some Early Epidemic and Corona-Virus Epidemic Model

  • Abhishek Sarkar,
  • Kulbhushan Agnihotri,
  • Krishna Pada Das

摘要

The new virus, COVID-19, spread quickly throughout Wuhan, China, other regions of China, and adjacent countries after the first case of unknown origin surfaced at Jinyintan Hospital in Wuhan, China, in December 2019. We developed epidemiological models and time models to estimate the incidence and short-term spread of COVID-19. This will enable institutions at all levels in China to respond and prevent COVID-19, while freeing up more time for clinical research. In the SIR and SI model, the main reproduction number is calculated analytically. The new generation matrix allows us to calculate the initial production number \(R_0\) according to the SEIR corona model, and the results show that with \(R_01\) the coronavirus does not spread in the body, but with \(R_0\) cannot less then 1. The disease will spread throughout society. The overall sensitivity and adaptability of the critical number of births are examined. Prevention and contamination are also covered and we use simple print codes as a guide. We analyzed past epidemic models such as West Nile virus and Zika virus using the next-generation matrix. Finally, we examined two coronavirus samples and determined the production number. It turns out that the distinction does not matter when the system is clogged. However, if the isolation rate is above the critical value, infection will not occur in the community. We showed the daily spread of coronavirus using some data.