Evaluation of the Effects of the National Emission Reduction Strategies for Years 2020–2029 and After 2030 on the AQI on the Territory of Bulgaria

The present paper presents the results obtained in the frame of an extensive study of the effects of different emission reduction scenarios on the air quality in Bulgaria. The set of models applied for atmospheric composition simulations is the same used in the operational Bulgarian Chemical Weather Forecast and Information System. Thus, the results are fully compatible with the operational chemical weather forecast. The models are also widely used in air pollution modelling, so the obtained computer simulation results are in harmony with evaluations made for other regions. Based on 3D modelling tools, an extensive database was created and used for different studies of atmospheric composition. The models in the system were adapted and validated for Bulgaria. It gave the opportunity to conduct extensive studies on a fully competitive modern level of the climate of atmospheric composition in the country. The provided model simulations are with horizontal resolution 9 km for the region of Bulgaria. Complying the EU Directive 2016/2284, Bulgaria developed national emission reduction strategies for years 2020–2029 and after 2030. Evaluation of the effects of these strategies on the AQI on the territory of Bulgaria is the objective of the present study. Five emission scenarios are considered in the paper for two different periods (2020–2029 and after 2030) with existing measures (WEM) and with additional measures (WAM), and they compare the results with the reference period (2005).