Big Data Assimilation for High-Impact Weather Prediction: A First Study for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area

The Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), while amongst one of the most economically vibrant regions in China, is also known to be susceptible to various high-impact weather events capable of bringing economic and social disruptions. In this study, we demonstrate a first application of “big data assimilation” for improving prediction of high-impact weather over GBA, using a case of severe convective rainstorm. Here the concept of “big data” is embodied in both (i) the volume of information contained in the atmospheric state vector of the underlying ensemble prediction system; and (ii) the non-conventional input observation data which may be sourced from open means, in contrast to traditional meteorological measurements typically used in data assimilation. Results can inform the development of high-impact weather prediction technology for GBA and beyond.