Meteorological and Hydrological Response Characteristics of Typical River Basins in the Context of Climate Change: A Case Study in the Jing River Basin, China

This study focused on the evolutionary trends of meteorological and hydrological factors under climate change in the future in the Jing River Basin, Loess Plateau, China. With the Statistical Downscaling Model (SDSM), the large-scale climatic factors exported from the Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2) were transferred into the meteorological factors in 14 meteorological stations in the basin, including daily maximum air temperature, minimum air temperature and precipitation data under two emission scenarios (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5). Additionally, by constructing the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) based on the projected meteorological data, the natural runoff processes from 2023 to 2050 under two scenarios were predicted and assessed. The results showed that under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, both the annual average maximum and minimum temperature showed an upward trend, while the annual precipitation and runoff showed significantly different evolutionary trends. Under the RCP2.6 scenario, the annual precipitation and runoff series show an obvious downward trend, while under the other scenario, two series show a rising trend. This study indicated that the evolutionary trends of meteorological and hydrological factors in the future were so complex that the local government should pay lots of attention to ensure food security.