Biases in Micro-level Probabilistic Reasoning and Its Impact on the Spectators’ Enjoyment of Tennis Games

In sports games, the excitement and suspense felt by the spectators are essential to their entertainment experience. The level of excitement and suspense is linked to the spectators’ reasoning about the probability of winning or losing. In tennis, as in many other sports, spectators’ predictions of winning probabilities largely hinge on the scores. Given tennis’s hierarchical scoring system, its probabilistic reasoning is multifaceted and complex. This research examines the winning probabilities across various scoring scenarios, using data from thousands of professional tennis matches and comparing them with theoretical models generally aligned with spectators’ common beliefs. The analysis reveals that the theoretical model makes accurate probability predictions at the macro level but inaccurate predictions at the micro level, pointing to possible biases in micro-level probabilistic reasoning. A recent behavioral economic theory may help explain the causes of such biases. Biases are generally seen as undesirable errors, but this study offers a counterargument that biases in micro-level probabilistic reasoning actually enhance the enjoyment of tennis matches by creating expectations, anxiety, and surprises.