Epidemiology Inspired Cybersecurity Threats Forecasting Models Applied to e-Government

This chapter delves into the innovative fusion of epidemiology and cybersecurity, presenting a novel paradigm for forecasting cyber threats with applications for e-Government. Drawing inspiration from epidemiological models that predict the spread of diseases, we propose pioneering approaches to anticipate and mitigate cyber threats in the digital governance landscape. To enhance the robustness of cyberattack forecasting, the chapter explores ensemble methods that combine predictions from multiple epidemiology models. This approach aims to mitigate individual model biases and improve forecasting accuracy. It also outlines that human expertise is required to contextualize the forecasts, identifying potential outliers, and define cybersecurity strategies. In conclusion, this chapter provides a comparison of the proposed models and identifies future challenges to enhance cybersecurity of e-Government.