Cyberattack Analysis Based on Attack Tree with Weighted Average Probability and Risk of Attack

Cyberattacks are becoming more frequent and sophisticated which is a major concern for businesses and users. Several methods are available to analyse the risk of cyberattacks and determine what mitigations to apply. However, such methods may not be effective and applicable in all attack conditions due to their cost, complexity, resources or expertise. Therefore, there is an enduring requirement to investigate new methods for cyberattack analysis fulfilling aforementioned criteria; this paper presents an inexpensive, simple and customizable method for cyberattack analysis using an attack tree with weighted average probability and risk of attack. This method proposes a series of orderly steps to perform a cyberattack analysis and assess its potential risk in an easy and effective manner. It proposes the necessary parameters and formulas required for calculating the weighted average probability and risk of attack, and therefore its potential mitigations can be determined.