Conclusion: From Globalization to Disruption

The post-World War II era was marked by significant economic progress in EMEs, a trend that is likely to continue as they continue to catch up with developed economies. However, the current economic situation does not appear conducive to the smooth continuation of this trend, reminiscent of the difficult experiences of the 1980s and 1990s. Over the past decade, EMEs have not generated strong, balanced, and sustainable economic growth, with financial excesses and imbalances undermining their progress. As a result, they are more vulnerable to adverse shocks, a process that appears to be unfolding through the complex interactions between climate change, demographic stagnation, and economic exclusion. The future is highly uncertain for EMEs and the global economy as a whole. What is clear is that the transition will likely be difficult for the majority of EMEs. Economies with stronger balance sheet structures, technological and human capital bases, and organizational and logistic (state) capacities will likely respond more positively to the challenge. In this regard, higher-income economies in Central and Eastern Europe and Asia are better positioned to deal with the impending issues. However, the rest of the EME complex will have to undergo more difficult and potentially turbulent adjustments. In this regard, the Age of Disruption will be characterized by greater differentiation between EMEs, rather than the uniform convergence that has marked the past few decades.