Grey Prediction Based Input–Output Model for Analyzing Potential Energy-Related Emission Mitigation Pathways: A Case Study of Fujian

Economic activities release pollutants and carbon (mainly CO2) directly by consuming energy resources and indirectly by using energy-intensive goods. This research put forwards a grey model (GM) (1, 1) based input–output model (GIOM) for simulating pollutants and CO2 emissions in Fujian Province under varied socio-economic development scenarios. Major findings are: (i) in the planning period, Agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (AGR) is the main sector for wastewater emissions in the planning period, and manufacturing and materials and energy conversion (MEC) sectors will be the main sectors for emissions of waste gases and CO2 in the planning period; (ii) through the simulation, the total energy consumption in Fujian Province increases by 13.53–51.08%, Metal and nonmetal products (MAN), MEC and Wholesale and retail transportation and warehousing (WRT) are the main energy consumers; (iii) the COD, NH3–N, SO2, and NOx emissions decrease 24.55–70.11%, 24.53–70.83%, 27.11–70.55% and 22.47–72.00% over time, and the CO2 emissions range from an increase of 36.35% to a decrease of 5.98% over time.