Assessment of Investment Scenarios for Russia’s Energy Transition to Carbon Neutrality Using the Monte Carlo Method

Research on developing strategies for achieving carbon neutrality becomes increasingly relevant in the context of global energy transformation and the pursuit of reducing carbon footprint. This article presents a quantitative analysis of the investment costs required to transform the Russian Federation’s electric power sector. The study assesses the range of possible investments using the Monte Carlo method to model various scenarios of energy consumption and electricity production from non-carbon sources. During the research, scenarios with total electricity consumption ranging from 6,800 to 12,800 TWh were considered, corresponding to the additional need for energy production from non-carbon sources, excluding the existing level of generation (1,200 TWh). The modelling included the distribution of energy consumption among atomic, hydro, wind, solar, geothermal, and biofuel stations, considering their shares in total generation and capacity factors (CF). For each scenario, the required capacity and corresponding investment costs were calculated. The modelling results revealed a significant range of potential investments, emphasizing the importance of considering uncertainties in energy policy planning. The most economically advantageous scenario was the one with a total electricity consumption of 6,800 TWh, which implied minimal investment costs due to the optimal combination of different types of generating capacity. This scenario showcases the potential of nuclear energy as a dominant source in achieving carbon neutrality with relatively low investments. The study underscores the complexities of transitioning to non-carbon energy sources and the importance of an integrated approach considering economic, technological, and environmental factors. The obtained data can serve as a basis for developing strategies in the energy sector and formulating government policies towards carbon neutrality.