Model for Forecasting the Hydrometeorological Situation as a Component of the Development of the Transport and Logistics System of the Arctic Region

The research touches upon aspects influencing the provision of the transport and logistics system of the Arctic territory of the Russian Federation. This research describes the main geographical and political, as well as economic and strategic components, depending on the logistics highways. The research also identifies the fundamental sea routes connecting the borders of the Eurasian mainland. We revealed an explicit dependence of the predictive assessment of the hydrometeorological situation in relation to transport logistics based on the analysis. Moreover, we highlighted the primary factors influencing the navigation along the Northern Sea Route. It was revealed that ice conditions are the main criterion that impedes the development of ship navigation as a component of the logistics system. Achievements of the set tasks of this study are based on proceeding from the formulation of the main properties and functions of the future model. It is customary to modify and further use the recursive Kalman - Bucy filtering algorithm as a basic mathematical apparatus. In addition, we described the basics of the linear filter and gave the designations of the modified coefficients and their justification. The results of approbation are presented in a visualized form on the graph. A comparative function expresses the predictive assessment in relation to a priori data, reflecting the relevance of the method under study, with a view to applying it in Arctic logistics. Recommendations are given for further improvement of the considered method.