Regularities of Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Energy Parameters of Induced Seismicity in the Development of Mineral Deposits by Field Observations and Mathematical Modeling Data

The concept has been substantiated and a statistical analysis procedure has been developed to identify regularities of spatiotemporal distribution of parameters of deterministic and random processes occurring in the geomechanical space of geotechnical objects at the industrial development stage. The approach consists in long time series creation describing: (1) the evolution of stress fields S (obtained by calculation using a verified 3D geomechanical model); (2) the number N and total energy W of seismic events caused by mining operations in various spatial blocks of the object under study. Next, the correlation coefficients between these series were calculated and statistically significant relationships N-S and W-S were revealed, which can be used for predictive estimates of the integral parameters of the seismic process. When implementing the approach, based on the induced seismicity database of the Tashtagol ore mine (Kemerovo region, Russia) and the original 3D geomechanical model (implemented by FEM), it was established that: with increasing mining depth, the centers of seismic energy release in blocks migrate towards the goaf and located, as a rule, in the ore body; at almost all mining levels, there are pairs of spatial blocks in which the total energy W and the number N of seismic events have a strong correlation with the average value of the maximum shear stress.