Scope and Probabilistic Reasoning: A Resolution of the Two-Envelope Paradox
摘要
A solution of McGrew et al. is defended and made more precise; it is found to be a simple scope-fallacy. The Paradox: You are shown two envelopes of money, are given one, and informed that the other one contains half the amount in your envelope or double that amount. Elementary reasoning tells you to trade. But the same reasons tell you to trade again...